Something to Prove

By: Ativ Patel || 9/11/2020

While the draft for your 2020 Fantasy Football season is likely over, there are always opportunities on the waiver wire to acquire value that has been overlooked. With high player turnover likely due to no preseason, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and players traveling to multiple cities weekly, it is prudent to be prepped for the 2020 season 🤷

Below are my 3 Sleeper Picks for the 2020 Fantasy Football Season. They were selected as players that have the most to prove this upcoming season and have the talent to back it up if they can (1) stay healthy and (2) execute. Here they are:

1. Chris Herndon - Tight End - New York Jets 

Risk Level: Low to mid 

Potential Upside Level: Very high 

• Rostered in 54% of Yahoo Fantasy leagues as of 9/11/2020
• 3rd year in NFL 
• Hungry to play with only 1 game last year due to injury and suspension from NFL 
  • "I’m anxious to get out there, but I definitely want to prove to myself that I’m back and better than I was when I last played" via NY Post 
  • In 2018, Herndon's last season that he played his performance included 39 receptions, 500+ yds, and 4 TDs over 16 games - that's in line with the second tier of TEs that year such as Hunter Henry. Herndon ended up in the top 10 TEs in the 2018 season  
• Cast members around him believe in his talent  
  • Coach Adam Gase's perspective: "I think Chris is somebody that really is a game-changing type player because he can force the defense to have to make a decision"
• QB is lacking reliable receiving options and coming off injured season (Mono)
• QB is a quality prospect with a good arm and quality chemistry with Herndon in 2018

Potential Upside Video Highlight Reel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJ4HC8ilBVw 

2. Dante Pettis - Wide Reciever - San Francisco 49ers

Risk Level: Very High

Potential Upside Level: Very high 

• Rostered in 0% of Yahoo Fantasy leagues as of 9/11/2020
• 49ers coming off a big Super Bowl loss with cracks in the offensive pass game  
• Dante Pettis was not on the final roster for the Super Bowl (aka benched) so there is a chip on his shoulder. This was likely due to a lack of faith and opportunity cost from the head coach, Kyle Shannahan. The good news is that Kyle still has faith here clearly to keep him on the roster this year and has explicitly said he likes what Dante has done in the offseason to improve
• Top receivers have moved on from the 49ers - Emmanuel Sanders and Marquise Goodwin 
• No clear #1 receiver - huge upside if this ends up being Dante Pettis, though more likely is WR2
• Injury-plagued recieving core 
  • Trent Taylor has been injury-plagued since he came into the league  
  • Deebo Samuel is the only #1 option right now but is suffering a foot injury before the season has begun 
  • Brandon Aiyuk is a rookie that has not proven he can play on the NFL level quite yet and with no preseason games under his belt, this could be a difficult transition. Currently suffering a minor hamstring injury  
• Pettis and backup QB Nick Mullens had a good rapport that Jimmy G lacked with Pettis in previous years
• Jimmy G and Pettis have had time to work on rapport and time to build trust
• COVID 19 allowed Pettis to mentally focus + focus on strength training 
• Great to excellent route-running ability  
• The potential upside of minimum 6 points a game as Pettis is the starting punt returner for the 49ers. According to Yahoo Rules, yards are not counted in Public Leagues BUT touchdowns are 6 points for individual players, and in this case, that would be Pettis for the 49ers
  • During his time at UW, Pettis set the Pac 12 return for TD record https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFNMGzPb0xw 

Potential Upside Highlight Reel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5Yc35rD-M4 

3. Carlos Hyde - Running Back - Seattle Seahawks 

Risk Level: Medium

Potential Upside Level: High 

• Rostered in 18% of Yahoo Fantasy leagues as of 9/11/2020
• Carlos Hyde is a player who has not been given the right environment to succeed, and this year it looks like he's been set up for success in Seattle. Pete Carroll knows how to let RBs be RBs even with SB XLIX on his record and a stronger offensive line in the past year. Every year with Russell Wilson is at the helm, is an opportunity for this team to win a game.
• Hyde's pass protection is top tier in the NFL and Pete loves that stuff
• Last year Hyde hit over 1000 yds rushing on 245 attempts. While this is the first time he's done that with 7 years in the league, he's previously gotten close in 2016 and 2017 with 938yds/240 attempts and 988 yds/220 attempts, respectively. That's 4.4 yds, 3.9, 4.6 yds per carry every year over 200 attempts, respectively! Hyde can produce when allowed to take 200+ attempts based on previous season data. . 
  • When Hyde gets over 200 attempts in a full 16 game season, his stats are quite similar to Frank Gore when he gets 200+ attempts over his 16-year career*  
• Seattle does not have an up the middle back to punch the ball in - Carlos could fill this gap and that's an easy 6 pts upside potential weekly at your flex
• Fumbling was a pesky problem for Seattle's running game last year and I'm sure Pete has little patience for that this year. This is likely the main reason for bringing Carlos in even though he also had his share of problems last year in Houston. Carson, the starting RB, led the league in fumbles - most players that continue this trend won't last the entire season as a starter leaving the potential for Hyde to step up
• Been there, done that - Hyde has been a backup before so he knows how to compete with other starting RBs and he usually gets his workload at some point throughout the season so this may be a mid-year sleeper

Potential Upside - Top 100 Player in 2018: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZuvlOkKK34 

*Frank Gore is the one of the greatest RB in 49ers history though maybe not fantasy wise...