The Case for Jerick McKinnon - Week 2, 2020 

By: Ativ Patel || 9/16/2020

With Week 1 of the 2020 fantasy football season in the books and the first set of waivers wire transactions processed, you might be looking at your roster like in need of an RB like:

Or, maybe you just want to have some solid picks on your radar? 

Regardless, there are always hidden gems on the waiver wire if you’re looking with an open mind. With COVID-19 looming and no pre-season games this year, high player turnover is very likely and might as well be prepped up 🤷‍♂️

Below is my case for Jerick McKinnon for the 2020 Fantasy Football Season provided he gets enough looks and stays healthy:

Jerick McKinnon - Running Back - San Francisco 49ers

Risk Level: Low to mid 

Potential Upside Level: Very high 

League Type: 12+ person || PPR and .5 PPR (Point Per Reception) 

• Rostered in 17% of Yahoo Fantasy leagues as of 9/16/2020
• Not much Niners information to go off as been injured past 2 seasons
• Health Risk: Multiple ACL 
• Has not played in 2 seasons prior to Week 1 2020 NFL season 
• Head Coach Kyle Shannahan Assessment: “Jet played very well and just him being out there was an accomplishment. I think it had been about a thousand days since he had played.”
• Has extremely high effort level even while injured
• Shannahan on this: “What he's gone through to get back, he's as good of a guy as there is, so everybody was pulling for him. He's worked as hard as he can and he's also a player who's going to help us out a lot.”
• Kyle Juice Man #44: “Man, I think he’s gonna have such a phenomenal year…We lost Brieda and I think Jet’s gonna step right in there. I think it’s going to be a smooth transition…he’s going to add another dimension to our offense…He may not have played in the last 2 years and withstood physical wear and tear, but he’s been in meetings, he’s been on the sidelines, and been very involved. This is not like this is his first time running in this offense…I feel like he’s ahead of the curve” 
• Context Risk: 49ers have a lot of RBs that are quality so more competition for snaps 
• Raheem Mostert (#1), Tevin Coleman (#2-3), Jeff Wilson Jr. (#4) 
• Jerick McKinnon played 19 snaps vs Raheem Mostert 39 snaps 
• Coleman has a prior health issue that is affected by poor air quality, which has been very poor in Santa Clara due to the local fires. The AQI seems to be improving so this something to consider day-to-day 
• Context Risk: Raheem Mostert is the #1 back here and doesn’t look to be slowing down anytime soon 🏄‍♂️
• 49ers are looking to be a first-run team again 
• As much as the 49ers want to rely on their $100m man, Jimmy G, last weeks performance was lackluster but may not have been all attribute to his performance - see graph below
• McKinnon Week 1 Performance Review:
• 3 rushes, 24 yds with a long 16 yd run
• 3 receptions, 20 yds, 1 TD
• Missed a critical 3rd down pass. Head Coach, Kyle Shannahan’s thoughts: “I thought Jet played well. Had some key plays for us. I know he would have liked to catch that ball, which I think we would have gotten a field goal there at least. I think it was like third and eight, or at least attempted to field goal. We end up having to punt.”
• QB is lacking top-tier receiving talent by way of injury and players leaving
• Lack of rapport with Sanu this week may lead to more pass targets to McKinnon
• We may see more dual set back formations with Mostert and McKinnon to ensure Jimmy G has many short pass options available to him versus the NY Jets which will lead to more opportunities for McKinnon to be on the field 
• QB seems to be struggling on arm strength and planting front foot/weight distribution so short passes might be bread and butter in pass game vs the NY Jets who also held opposing RBs to 2.5yds/carry

That may not have been much info, but let’s look at Jerrick McKinnon’s time at Minnesota:

• Was a great player and high performance in Minnesota playing with Adrian Peterson 
• Able to get huge yards after the catch when dumped the ball in the flat  
• Rushing: Had ~150+ attempts and ~550 yds per season in 2016 and 2017 with the Vikings
• Passing: Passing receptions are were McKinnon shines, which is good news if you're in a PPR league. This was reflected in his growth in average reception yards from 2016 to 2017. In 2016, he had 43 receptions/255 yds leading to an average of 5.9 yds. while in 2017, he had 51 receptions/421 yds leading to an average of 8.3 yds. Week 1 was in line with his 2017 avg, though not a big enough sample size to go off of at this time but good to note. 
• Even more impressive, is McKinnon’s yards after catch (YAC) average increase per reception from 6.7 to 9.3 from 2016 to 2017, respectively. This is with a similar amount of receptions in each year and is a 38.8% increase YoY in YAC

So McKinnon is great at YAC and receptions at the RB position or at least has the potential to be great at these 2 things once again in Santa Clara - but do the 49ers need that right now? 

Yes. 

If it wasn’t clear in week 1 of the 2020 NFL season, the Niners are lacking receiving options right now which is shown in Kyle’s move to sign Mohammad Sanu yesterday.

Who could have predicted the 49ers going from in the Super Bowl to losing in what looked like a flat 49ers offense? Well, the data predicted it! The data says that the 49ers WR core did most of the leg work via YAC in the 2019 season! Don’t believe me? This is what Rotoballer had to say about 49ers WR/TE YAC in the context of all NFL teams during the 2019 Super Bowl run season: 

“The reasonable thought to have prior to studying this data was to expect every team gaining more yards through the air than on having YAC. Turns out that is not the case in both Indianapolis and San Francisco, in the latter case by a mile.

We can take a better look at it by showing the delta (difference) between aYDS and YAC for each team in percentage terms:”

“To say that's unique would be falling short. The 49ers are getting more passing yards from their receivers' efforts after the catch than what Garoppolo is actually doing with his arm. Not only that, but their delta is actually higher than that of the other 21 teams in the other direction! Fear not Niners fans, this essentially means you could put a street-QB at the helm and your receiving corps can still seemingly make something out of their targets.” 

While this dataset does not account for the RB position, it does tell a different story than the mainstream story: that Jimmy G is extraordinary and simply performed poorly in week 1 of the 2020 season vs last year. Maybe, he’s having the same performance and the difference is that he is missing all the top-tier receivers he had as resources that he had last year that made him look great via YAC. The lack of Deebo Samuel (injury), Emmanuel Sanders (no longer w/ 49ers), and Goodwin (no longer w/ 49ers) has created an even more significant vacuum in the 49ers offense than is being reported and, has thus created a large market for receivers that can create YAC for Kyle Shannahan’s offense. 

Maybe, just maybe, Jerick McKinnon is the man for the job and can fill part of the 49ers massive demand for YAC. Only time will tell. 

Disclosure: I am a big 49ers fan so the article might be biased. I picked up McKinnon last week, started him, won week 1. I currently have McKinnon on my fantasy roster on the bench. I am unsure if I will start him this week or not at flex.